535 days until ...

Actor Fred Thompson is still thinking about announcing that he is planning a run for President in 2008. Let me check my calendar. Let’s see – today is … June 19, 2007. The first primary or in this case a caucus is scheduled for January 14, 2008 in Iowa. The Democratic Convention will be held in late August of 2008 and the Republican convention will start on September 1, 2008. And we finally get to vote for President on November 4, 2008. If you need them all check this out (www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/events.phtml?s=c&f=m)

But it’s still 2007 for crying out loud!

Earlier this year there was much clamoring about and jockeying as various states enacted legislation to move their respective primaries as early in the year as possible. The simple explanation is they want their primary to count for something. Who wants to try to attract voters to the polls to pick their party’s candidate after they’ve already gotten the magic number of delegates required for the nod at their convention? Apparently nobody except Nebraska who will have the distinction of being the last primary in late June of 2008.

For the Democrats all this might be a good thing so they can get it out of the way early, pick their candidates, let Hillary and Bill make their deal with Barack (OK that is just my thinking on how this will all play out – as early as possible Hillary makes a deal with Barack to be her Veep which almost guarantees him the Presidency in 2016 – if he can wait that long. But what he will be (or want to be) is the most powerful and active Veep in history.) But getting all the stuff out of the way means they can mend their fences, stop spending bazillions of dollars campaigning against each other and rest while the Republicans duke it out to see which two of them get to be the GOP ticket in the fall.

My focus right now is on the GOP side of things. Let’s look at what is going on and again what I think is likely to happen. All the major candidates are courting the evangelical vote and trying to convince everyone that they are indeed tried and true conservative Republicans even if they happen to hold antithetical (to the rank-and-file GOP) views on major deal-busters such as abortion, gay rights, immigration and perhaps gun control. I confess I honestly don’t know who will win this multi-horse race. I think the media would like for a good candidate they can have some fun with but who won’t really have a chance of beating Hillary in the fall. Not sure what the latest polling numbers say about the various match-ups. Doesn’t matter. Because Hillary is going to win and here is why.

The Republican may actually pick their ticket early too – although I think it will take longer than the Dems. But still by March – the race could be over. Or it could just be underway.

For the sake of my point, assume that either Giuliani, Romney or McCain gets the GOP nod – at least unofficially in March by racking up enough delegates. Where does that leave them? With almost 7 months to campaign.

But it also leaves the door open for a 3rd party run. How? You ask?

Seems like in the past 3rd party runs happen when people don’t get the official nod and go outside the mainstream to make their run. They usually end up as a footnote or in the case of Ross Perot a major factor if you agree that he may have cost Bush 41 the race against Clinton. Doubtful that anybody planning to vote for Clinton would have jumped ship to vote for the little guy with charts. In 2000 it could be argued that Ralph Nader cost Gore Florida in the national election and would have kept the Supremes out of the contest. Doubtful that anyone voting for Nader would have cast their vote for Dubya instead. Nader’s almost 3 million votes could have done more damage that anyone expected.

Back to my current point: Once Rudy/Mitt/John are running against Hillary/Barack, many evangelicals, Christians who consider themselves conservative on social issues, and many just plain-old conservatives regardless of their spiritual persuasion, may be fed up with the GOP and do one of two things: stay away from the process (many already feel mis-led, betrayed etc. by Bush 43 on matters like these) OR they will finally form a 3rd party attempt to end-run the anointed GOP ticket and go straight for the Christian, right, et al vote.

In either case they may have enough votes to tip the scales. Not win the election; yet.

The difference? Time. And perhaps money. With the decisions pretty much made by March, 7 months is a long time to raise money, get on enough State ballots, develop a platform – all that structural stuff that politics requires.

If Nader’s 3 million votes could tip things for Bush, imagine what a much larger (and I’ve been trying to find some good numbers but everyone on the internet seems to make all the comparisons in terms of percentages – not total numbers) group of people could do?

A few years ago, before blogging was mainstream, I wrote a little essay about needing a 3rd party.

I think in 2008 we’ll see the emergence of a 3rd party that won’t and can’t win the election but may end up placing a few people in elected offices (at the state levels and maybe even a congressman or two) but will garner enough attention to become a real force in 2012. By then they’ll get Federal funds and will have had several years of fighting liberal government by the Clinton White House and a Democratically controlled Congress. More people will give them serious consideration.

Long and complex and maybe dead wrong. But I think the GOP will regret pushing for so many early primaries. I don’t see how this can possibly benefit them in the final count. Time for the 3rd party to develop and build up some steam. Time for a candidate in a long campaign to self-destruct. Time for people to really see what each person thinks, believes, is made of.

So you only have 535 more days of having to listen to multiple candidate on both sides tell you why they are the best candidate for their party. I’m tired already.